[🇺🇸]Will La Niña Arrive This Fall? Korea Expected to See Warmer, Wetter Conditions

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has projected a 55% probability of La Niña occurring this fall.

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, the likelihood of La Niña forming between September and November is 55%, while neutral conditions stand at 45%. Extending the outlook to October through December, the probability rises to 60%.

La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific remain below average, influencing global climate patterns both directly and indirectly.

In Korea, if La Niña develops between September and October, temperatures tend to be higher and rainfall more frequent than normal. This is because cooler waters in the tropical central Pacific strengthen anticyclonic circulation over the North Pacific, drawing in warm, humid southerly winds. Conversely, when La Niña occurs in November to December, stronger northerly winds often bring colder, drier weather. However, in recent years, other climate factors—such as Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans—have caused November to still experience warmer and wetter conditions, leaving uncertainties in predictions.

The KMA stated, “We are closely monitoring the possibility of La Niña and will continue to observe the impacts of changing climate factors.”

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